I try to stay away from exact price predictions — whether we’re talking about silver prices, oil prices or any kind of prices at all. I don’t believe that anyone can predict them with a degree of certainty that I would ever feel comfortable enough to trust. Economics is more about unpredictable psychology and political events than it is about math and trends. It’s depressing, but it’s true.
I say this even as I’ve launched Live Silver Prices just a few weeks ago. If you look at the about page, you’ll see that even there I’m echoing my thoughts here — prices are essentially unpredictable without scientific certainty that I’d feel comfortable enough to bet on. Some get offended and upset at this, claiming I’m too conservative — but they’re probably right. I’m more focused on financial security than profits.
In the end, economics is an art more than a science, regardless of what professors at universities might claim. This all reminds me of a quote from Richard Maybury, one of my favorite investment writers:
“Investment analysis is not the study of charts, graphs and equations, it’s the study of people. The economy is not a machine, it’s an ecology; it’s not physics, it’s biology.”
Once you understand that economics is about human tendencies and vices, you’ll see why capitalism makes much more sense. It isn’t optimistic about people being inherently good or selfless — it counts on their selfishness, and unleashes it for the potential benefit of all.
Anyway, just a few thoughts on silver prices that I wanted to share. Make sure to sign up for our newsletter.
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